Tuesday, October 9, 2007

The Weekly Bets--(up to Monday 10/15)

Welcome to the inaugural Weekly Betting Line. Here I will discuss my picks of the week in sports betting. If you're like me and love watching a game with money on the line, then you enjoy this weekly segment. I will post my picks and analysis and will open it up to the people for comments and their thoughts. Also, I ask that each responder post their 1 favorite bet of the week. Lets beat Vegas together and make some money! So, lets get at it.

--BIG GAME OF THE WEEK--

Patriots(-5) @ Cowboys
*Pats win a great game of two high-powered offenses. Yes, Pats have combined opponent record of 7-17, but they have avg. margin of victory of over 23 pts. Dallas has the 2nd best pass offense, while NE has the 6th best pass D. That should make things interesting. The difference is NE's balance of #3 rush offense and #4 pass offense. Can Tony Romo mentally bounce back from 5 INT's? Yes, but he can't manage a team as well as Tom Brady.
Basically the game will be close, and I believe NE will win by AT LEAST A TOUCHDOWN and show Dallas fans the true power of the AFC.

--NFL Picks--

Vikings @ Bears(-5.5)
*Look for the Bears to carry their momentum from their win over the Packers to a win over the Vikings in Chicago. Yes, the Bears have been inconsistent, but look for a mid-size win around 7-10pts.

Titans (+3) @ Tampa Bay
*Look for an upset here, or at least a win over the spread. TENN is 3-1 and their only loss was vs. the Colts. TENN has won in Jacksonville. Tampa Bay's #22 Rush D won't be able to stop TENN and Vince Young's #4 Rush Offense from marching all over them. Mark it now, Titans over Tampa, pick the MONEY or against the SPREAD.

*Monday Night Game*
*Giants(-3) @ Falcons
*The Giants are hot coming in on a 3-game win streak. Falcons, well, you know the drill.


--NCAAF Picks--
Missouri(+10.5) @ Oklahoma
*As hot as Mizzu is you got to take the Sooners at home. Even though Mizzu is coming off a huge win over Nebraska, there is a good chance they will play w/o leading rusher Tony Temple, who is a game-time decision with a sprained ankle. It's just a matter of points in this one, and I say take the points, a win under 10.5 for Oklahoma.
Purdue(+5.5) @ Michigan
Yes, Purdue is 5-1 and is coming off a 16pt loss to OSU at home but this team is still very competitive. Michigan will roll in the Big House, but take the points in this one for Purdue. Michigan is coming off an unimpressive 33-22 win over E.Michigan at home. Also, Michigan has yet to beat a quality opponent by a good margin (ex. Penn St. 5pt win), so look for small margin of victory for Michigan.
Keep an Eye on: South Carolina(-7) @ North Carolina
*Why? Well SC is undefeated with many close wins. Yes, they outscore opponents still by about 12pts but did you watch last week's game against Kentucky. They scored on two turnovers and really didn't control the game. This is a huge border rivalry and will be huge for future recruits. If UNC wins, it won't be pretty and won'y be by much. Will I take the 7 points for UNC...yes, SC by a few thanks to some 4th quarter heroics.


Safe bets of the Week to make a few bucks on the MONEY line
NFL: -Chargers OVER Raiders
NCAAF: -Rutgers OVER Syracuse; Ohio St. OVER Kent; Boston College OVER Notre Dame
Lastly, my hometown picks...
Wisconsin(+7) @ Penn St.
--Luke Swan(WR) is out indefinately, but look for Travis Beckum to catch another 10 passes and continue his All-American TE bid. The Badgers D will get a mini break from an explosive lineup, but look for Penn St. to roll unless the Badgers D decides to show up for their first game this season. Take the points, but hopefully the Badgers win.

Redskins @ Packers(-3)
--As good as the pass Defense is for the Redskins, look for the #1 pass offense led by #4 to beat the Redskins in Green Bay. The Packers RB's showed some promise last week and will be needed this week to counter the constant passing by the Pack. Packers win by at least a touchdown.

Please share your thoughts and your 1 Major Pick! Look for this column to appear weekly. Note: Betting lines subject to change. Check out the lines at http://www.superbook.com/

7 comments:

John said...

Really looking forward to the Dallas/New England game. I hope the 'Boys dont suffer for a hangover...

http://behindthedugout.tireball.com

MilTownBrewCrew said...

from what I hear the Dallas--New England game is now -6. I would still bet on New England to cover as long as it remains under 7.0

MilTownBrewCrew said...

So you got to love TO writting a note 'saying' he won't talk until Sunday afternoon.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3057714

John said...

I dunno about advertising. I've signed up to a couple of sites such as ballhype and yardbarker that allow you to post links to your "stories" there.

I guess I've had a little success with that. I've also contacted a few other blogs but with mixed success.

Anonymous said...

HUGE sports fan....love this site

Tom Crean said...

What an insightful blog. You should start charging membership fees for the betting section, I made millions on your picks from last week. Anywho, I like the brewers on the money line this week.

John said...

lmao @ that tom. id short the brewers and the bucks and lol @ that again